Tools
Steam Wishlist Target Calculator
From a unit recoup target, work backwards to the wishlist count you need on Steam, week one. Both 5% median and 10% strong conversion shown.
Next step: Steam Sales Forecast Calculator →Paste the figure from the Publishing Break-Even Calculator, or type a unit target by hand. This is the number of copies you need to move to clear recoupment.
units
How many months you're giving the launch window to clear the unit target. Default 5 months: industry research suggests a Steam title earns most of its lifetime revenue inside the first month or so.
months
How many wishlists you have right now. Optional. Leave empty if you just want the target.
wishlists
Wishlists Required at launch
5% median
0
average Steam launch
10% strong
0
genre fit + push
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Notes
- Wishlist conversion: the range is what matters. GameDiscoverCo data from 2024 to 2025 puts the median Week 1 conversion at 0.15x for games with 10,000+ wishlists at launch, but that median is almost beside the point. The actual distribution varies by 10 to 20x between the worst and best performers: some games convert at 10% of the median, others at 10x above it. For games priced above $10, the median drops to 0.10x. The 5% and 10% scenarios in this calculator sit at the conservative end of that distribution, which is where most games land. They are not predictions. Sources: GameDiscoverCo, Oct 2025 and Gamalytic, Apr 2024
- Wishlist quality matters more than wishlist count. Not all wishlists are equal. GameDiscoverCo found that games with a higher follower-to-wishlist ratio tend to convert worse, because wishlists without a follow are more likely to be casual or driven by inorganic calls-to-action. Games in the lowest follower-to-wishlist quartile converted at 0.37x median; those in the highest quartile converted at 0.22x, a 68% difference. If you are running paid acquisition or broad social campaigns to drive wishlists, be conservative with your conversion assumptions. Source: GameDiscoverCo, May 2026
- Wishlists are not customers. A wishlist is a soft signal of intent. Slow, flat organic growth usually means weak interest, and recent wishlist velocity predicts a launch better than the raw total. What converts wishlists is a compelling launch moment: a discount, a demo, festival visibility, influencer coverage, or a content drop. Accumulating wishlists and waiting is not a strategy.
- Estimation only. This calculator gives you a planning target, not a forecast. The actual outcome will depend on your game quality, review scores, price point, genre, timing, and marketing execution, none of which this tool can model. Use it to stress-test your recoup assumptions, not to predict revenue.