Tools

Steam Wishlist Target Calculator

Type Calculator

Topic Marketing Targets

Published 24 May 2026

Updated 18 October 2026

Start from a unit recoup target and work back to the wishlist count you need on Steam. The calculator shows Weak, Typical and Strong tiers on a 2023-25 conversion curve.

Then plan the launch itself with the Launch Week Planning Helper. An honest read on how to reach the players is part of my Strategic Publishing Support service.

Units to Sell to Recoup

Paste the figure from the Publishing Break-Even Calculator, or type a unit target by hand. This is the number of copies you need to move to clear recoupment.

units

Months to Recoup

Enter how many months you give the launch window to clear the unit target. Default 5 months. Month 1 holds about 57% of five-month sales for recent releases, and only about 31% of a full year.

months

Current Wishlists

How many wishlists you have right now. Optional. Leave empty if you just want the target.

wishlists

Wishlists Required at launch

Typical

Your wishlists convert like the median 2023-25 release.

Strong

Engaged players added your game, so each wishlist converts about 1.68x better.

Weak

Paid or casual wishlists convert about 1.68x worse.

Same game, 2020-22 cohort: 0 wishlists

Model updated on 18 Oct 2026. Results differ from earlier versions of this page.

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Notes

Conversion depends on when a game launched. Chris Zukowski collected launch data from 160 games: 34 released in 2020-22 and 126 released in 2023-25. For the recent group, each wishlist turned into about 0.22 copies after one month, 0.43 after six months and 0.70 after a year. Games from 2020-22 reached 0.45, 0.82 and 0.99 at the same points. The calculator uses the 2023-25 curve and draws a straight line between those points. Readers submitted the data themselves, so treat it as directional. GameDiscoverCo found a week 1 median of 0.17x for 2024-25 launches, and that figure lines up with the Typical tier (0.22 × 0.75 is about 0.165). It serves as background here, and the model does not rest on it. Sources: Chris Zukowski, How to Market a Game, Game World Observer, 15 Oct 2026, Inven Global (secondary coverage) and GameDiscoverCo, Oct 2025
Wishlist quality matters more than wishlist count. Not all wishlists are equal. GameDiscoverCo found that games with a higher follower-to-wishlist ratio tend to convert worse, because wishlists without a follow are more likely to be casual or driven by inorganic calls-to-action. Games in the lowest follower-to-wishlist quartile converted at 0.37x median, and those in the highest quartile converted at 0.22x. That gap works out to 68%. The Strong tier divides the Typical target by 1.68 to reflect it. The Weak tier multiplies by the same factor. That symmetry is my assumption, and no study has measured it. If you run paid acquisition or broad social campaigns to drive wishlists, plan with the Weak tier. Source: GameDiscoverCo, May 2026
Recent wishlist velocity works as a flag. Velocity here means the wishlists you added in the last 30 days. In the same analysis, a model that combined velocity with the total reached an R² of 0.75, and the pooled total alone reached 0.73. Velocity therefore adds little over the total. It still helps as a warning: when your recent adds trail far behind your total, the total probably overstates real interest. A strong launch moment converts wishlists: a discount, a demo, festival visibility, influencer coverage, or a content drop.
Estimation only. This calculator gives you a planning target. It does not forecast sales. The actual outcome will depend on your game quality, review scores, price point, genre, timing, and marketing execution, and this tool models none of them. Use it to stress-test your recoup assumptions.

Last reviewed against the sources above: 18 Oct 2026