Tools

Steam Sales Forecast Calculator

Type Calculator
Topic Steam Sales
Updated 2026
Experimental

Two parts. Before launch: estimate Week 1, Month 1 and Year One sales from your wishlist and follower count. After launch: enter your actual Week 1 numbers and see how you track against benchmarks.

← Previous step: Steam Wishlist Target Calculator

Pre-Launch Forecast

Estimate your launch sales from what you know today.

Your estimated or target wishlist count at launch. Paste from the Steam Wishlist Target Calculator or enter manually.
wishlists
If you enter followers, the calculator will cross-check your wishlist estimate using the 10x median ratio and show a confidence range.
followers
The price shown on your Steam store page on launch day.
$
Early Access games convert roughly 8% fewer wishlists on average.
Pre-Launch Sales Estimate
Week 1
0
5% low / 15% median
Month 1
0
median month 1 conversion
Year One
0
first week × 3 (conservative)

Post-Launch Tracker

Enter your actual numbers. See how you compare to benchmarks.

This section requires real data from your Steamworks dashboard. Without actual numbers, the projections below are not meaningful.

Total copies sold in the first 7 days from your Steamworks data.
units
Public review count at end of Week 1. Used to cross-check sales via Boxleiter method (20x to 60x sales per review).
reviews
Used to calculate your actual conversion rate and compare to the 15% median. Inherits the value from Part 1 if left empty.
wishlists
Post-Launch Projections
Enter your Week 1 sales to see projections.
← Steam Follower Velocity Calculator
Notes
  • Experimental tool. This calculator is based on publicly available industry data, but the underlying metrics are subject to significant variance, genre-specific differences, and market conditions that no dataset fully captures. Use it to explore possible scenarios and pressure-test assumptions. Do not use it as a basis for financial decisions without cross-referencing with your own data and professional advice.
  • Where 15% comes from, and why it is a shaky number. GameDiscoverCo analysis of Steam launches from September 2024 to September 2025 puts the median Week 1 conversion at 0.15x of launch wishlists for games with 25,000+ wishlists. For games priced above $10, that drops to 0.10x. But the distribution varies by 10 to 20x between worst and best performers. The median is a reference point, not a prediction. Sources: GameDiscoverCo, Oct 2025 and Gamalytic, Apr 2024
  • What actually drives outperformance. The games that converted best in 2024 to 2025 shared two patterns: they went viral with influencers and friend groups (co-op titles especially), or they were major franchises where casual players showed up without wishlisting first. Single-player games that blew up on social video also outperformed. None of these are things you can model in advance. Source: GameDiscoverCo, Oct 2025
  • Where 27% Month 1 comes from. Gamalytic analysis of 5,744 Steam games released after June 2024 puts median Month 1 sales at 27% of launch wishlists. Same caveat as above: wide distribution, treat as directional. Source: Gamalytic, Apr 2024
  • Where ×3 Year One comes from. GameDiscoverCo data on 2023 to 2024 releases puts median Year 1 revenue at roughly 3x Week 1 revenue. Viral or multiplayer titles can exceed 10x; hype-driven launches that front-load tend to land below. This calculator uses 3x as the conservative baseline. Source: GameDiscoverCo, Apr 2024
  • Early Access adjustment. Early Access games convert roughly 8% fewer wishlists than full releases on average. Source: Gamalytic, Apr 2024
  • Boxleiter cross-check. The Boxleiter method estimates 20x to 60x sales per public review, with a central range of 25x to 45x for most indie titles. This calculator uses 30x as a conservative midpoint for the cross-check only. It is a rough sanity check, not a reliable figure. Source: Steam Page Analyzer, 2026
  • Estimation only. Both sections are directional indicators, not financial forecasts. The actual outcome depends on your game quality, review scores, price point, genre, timing, and marketing execution. Use this tool to pressure-test your assumptions, not to predict revenue.

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