Tools
Steam Launch Outlook Calculator
Experimental
Enter your current Steam followers and launch date. See if you're on track to hit your wishlist target, and what it takes to get there.
Where the game is today
Find this on your Steam store page. Followers are the only pre-launch metric visible to everyone, including publishers.
FOLLOWERS
GameDiscoverCo puts the median at 12x for unreleased games (2023 data). For games with 50,000+ wishlists, the 2026 median has risen to 16x. Conservative baseline: 7x. Use 12x if unsure. This multiplier applies across the whole tool, including Followers Needed.
X
Estimated Wishlists Today
0
range: 0 (7x) to 0 (16x)
Project to launch
When did you open your Steam page? This is used to calculate your current follower velocity.
Your current planned launch date. This determines how much time you have to grow.
Optional. Pull this from your Steamworks follower report. If you fill this in, the projection uses your recent pace instead of your lifetime average, which is a better signal of launch performance. Leave empty to use the page-open average.
FOLLOWERS
Paste the figure from the Steam Wishlist Target Calculator, or enter your target manually.
WISHLISTS
Follower Trajectory
Set a launch date to see your trajectory
Current projection
Target follower equivalent
Spike events (max 5)
Total spike boost0
Projected followers with spikes0
Launch Outlook
Expected Outcome
- HIGHLY LIKELY to reach the objectives
- LIKELY to reach the objectives
- POSSIBLE, but tight
- UNLIKELY to reach the objectives
- HIGHLY UNLIKELY to reach the objectives
Set a wishlist target to see your expected outcome.
Hi, I'm Michele (or Miki for short).
These projections are a starting point. If you want to pressure-test them, tell me about your game.
Notes
- Experimental tool. This calculator is based on publicly available industry data, but the underlying metrics are subject to significant variance, genre-specific differences, and market conditions that no dataset fully captures. Use it to explore possible scenarios and pressure-test assumptions. Do not use it as a basis for financial decisions without cross-referencing with your own data and professional advice.
- Where the follower multiplier comes from, and why it keeps changing. The follower-to-wishlist ratio has increased over time as marketers focus more on wishlist calls-to-action than follower growth. In 2021, the median was 9.6x (range 5x to 14x). By June 2023, it had risen to 12x (range 7x to 20x). GameDiscoverCo data from May 2026 puts the median at 16.1x for games with more than 50,000 wishlists at launch, suggesting the ratio continues to drift upward, especially for larger titles. This calculator uses 12x as the default, which is appropriate for most indie games in active pre-launch. If your game has broad social reach or has been featured in multiple Next Fest events, consider using 14x to 16x. Sources: GameDiscoverCo, Jun 2023 · GameDiscoverCo, May 2026
- Where 10x comes from. GameDiscoverCo surveys of unreleased Steam games show a median of 9.6x to 12x wishlists per follower, with a range of 7x to 20x depending on genre, festival exposure, and marketing activity. Source: GameDiscoverCo, 2021 · Impress Games, 2023
- Recent velocity beats lifetime average. A page that gained 200 followers in the last month is a healthier signal than one sitting on 10,000 collected over three years. GameDiscoverCo found that titles which underperformed at launch had spent far longer in pre-release, an average of 411 days versus 214 for the strong converters, and the slower organic rate was the tell. That is why this calculator now lets you enter your last 30 days of follower growth and uses that pace when you provide it. Sources: GameDiscoverCo, Oct 2025 and GameDiscoverCo, Apr 2024.
- Wishlist estimates are approximations. The follower to wishlist ratio varies by genre, festival participation, and how long the page has been open. GameDiscoverCo data shows a median of 9.6x for unreleased games, with a central cluster of 10x to 12x. Games with recent Next Fest or demo exposure tend to sit higher. Source: GameDiscoverCo, 2021
- Spikes are not guaranteed. Next Fest, demos, and trailers can produce large follower boosts, but results vary enormously by genre, timing, and execution. Use spike estimates conservatively.
- Estimation only. Directional indicator, not a forecast. Real planning needs your actual Steamworks data.
- Next step. Once you have a wishlist target in mind, run it through the Steam Wishlist Target Calculator to size your launch.